Nexus/BTG Pactual’s latest survey puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 40% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in a prompted first-round presidential scenario. With a margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, the three-point gap amounts to a technical tie.¹

Coverage from the left frames the result as a tightening race rather than a change in the nominal leader. It notes that Lula slipped two points compared with the previous week, cutting his advantage over Bolsonaro from five points to three. In a runoff between the pair, Lula leads 46% to 45%, another result within the margin of error. The same account stresses that Lula would lead Romeu Zema, 47% to 41%, and Renan Santos, 47% to 39%, while tying Ronaldo Caiado at 45% apiece and Augusto Cury, 44% to 43%.¹

Right-leaning coverage reaches the same central conclusion: Lula is “numerically” ahead, but neither the first-round nor Lula-Bolsonaro runoff result establishes a clear leader. It adds the spontaneous-voting scenario, where Lula receives 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34%, and highlights that the prompted list did not include Leonardo Avalanche of PRTB.²

The difference is chiefly one of emphasis. The left-oriented report focuses on Lula’s numerical advantages across several pairings; the right-oriented account puts greater weight on methodological caution, describing opinion polls as momentary readings rather than forecasts. Both cite 2,006 interviews conducted from September 18 to 20, 2026, with a 95% confidence level and registration BR-00485/2026. The shared evidence points to a competitive field in which small shifts could alter the apparent leader.²