BTG/Nexus: Lula leads in the first round and ties in the second, being numerically ahead
President registers 40% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 37% in the simulated scenario and appears with 46% to 45% against the senator in a potential second round
TL;DR
- Lula leads the first round with 40% intention of vote, Flávio Bolsonaro has 37%.
- In simulated second rounds, Lula is numerically ahead against Flávio Bolsonaro (46% to 45%), Ronaldo Caiado (45% to 45%), Augusto Cury (44% to 43%), Romeu Zema (47% to 41%), and Renan Santos (47% to 39%).
- Most respondents (54%) believe Lula will win the election, compared to 36% who expect Flávio Bolsonaro to win.
- The election is described as competitive, with Lula maintaining a lead in the first round and facing close contests in potential second-round scenarios.