The two accounts agree on the central warning: El Niño is strengthening and may remain influential into early 2027. They diverge, however, over what deserves most attention — the immediate financial pressure on Brazilian households or the scientific evidence and uncertainty surrounding the event.

The monitoring-focused account says sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific were 2.08°C above the historical average in September, the second-highest September reading since 1950. Weekly readings in the Niño 3.4 region later reached 2.4°C above average, while waters off South America rose by as much as 4.5°C. It cites a federal climate-panel assessment putting the chance of a very strong event at 95% for October through December, with conditions expected to last at least through the first quarter of 2027.¹

That account urges caution alongside its alarming figures. It says projections point to wetter-than-normal conditions and flood risks in the South, but reduced rainfall, drought and wildfire risks in parts of central and northern Brazil. Still, it notes that long-range forecasts are trends rather than guarantees, and that a specific storm, drought or heatwave cannot be attributed to El Niño alone.¹

The cost-focused account takes those weather shifts closer to the checkout counter. It argues that irregular rainfall can damage crops, foster pests and disrupt livestock feeding, reducing supplies of produce and raising the cost of meat through more expensive soy and corn feed. It says perishables such as fruit and vegetables are especially exposed because they spoil quickly, while excess moisture in the South can damage crops including potatoes.²

It also highlights Brazil’s reliance on hydropower: drought in key river basins can lower reservoirs and force the use of costlier thermal plants, triggering extra electricity charges. Low Amazon river levels, it adds, could make freight to and from Manaus more expensive as companies shift some cargo from river transport to air.²

Taken together, the reports portray an event nearing historic intensity, but one whose consequences will vary sharply by region — and whose economic effects may become clearer only as rainfall patterns and ocean temperatures evolve.