Super El Niño intensifies and approaches historical records in 2026
The numbers indicate that the current episode continues to intensify and may rank among the strongest in recent decades
TL;DR
- El Niño has intensified in 2026, reaching near-record sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
- September 2026 saw temperatures 2.08°C above average in the central Pacific, the second highest for the month since 1950.
- Temperatures on the South American coast reached 4.5°C above average, close to the 1983 record.
- The Niño 3.4 region indicator reached 2.4°C above average in October, surpassing September's and 1997's monthly values.
- Projections indicate a 95% probability of El Niño reaching very strong intensity between October and December 2026.
- The phenomenon is expected to persist at least until the first quarter of 2027.
- Impacts include increased rainfall and potential flooding in Southern Brazil and reduced rainfall, drought, and increased wildfire risk in the central-north.
- Temperatures are expected to remain above historical averages across much of Brazil.
- El Niño is a natural phenomenon of abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather patterns.