The first PoderData/Aya survey of Brazil’s presidential runoff places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 53% of valid votes, compared with 47% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The poll, conducted by telephone from October 5 to 7 among 3,000 voters, has a 1.8-percentage-point margin of error and was registered with the electoral court.¹

Right-leaning coverage casts the result as an early but significant advantage for the opposition candidate: Flávio’s six-point lead is described as exceeding the survey’s margin of error and arriving as campaigns begin their decisive-stage mobilisation.² A social-media post circulating the same figures framed them as a national second-round snapshot, saying: “Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 53%” and “Lula (PT): 47%.”Paulo Figueiredo (8) (pfigueiredo08)³

Reports carried by left-leaning outlets do not dispute the topline result. Instead, they put it alongside the first-round outcome, when Flávio received 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16%, arguing that the new poll represents an expansion of the senator’s advantage from 1.87 points to six.⁴

The same coverage also highlights a more uneven electoral map. Lula leads among women, 50% to 42%, while Flávio performs better in the Center-West, Southeast and South, according to the survey. It reports that 54% of respondents expect Flávio to win, against 37% for Lula, and that evaluations of Lula’s administration remain more negative than positive.⁵

Both perspectives therefore treat the poll as a setback for Lula rather than a final forecast. The survey measures opinion at a particular moment, with more than two weeks remaining before the October 25 runoff.