Brazil’s 2026 presidential race is effectively level between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to a new Meio/Ideia poll, despite Lula’s narrow numerical edge in both first- and second-round scenarios.

In the prompted first-round ballot, Lula received 39.4% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 38.4%, a one-point difference that is smaller than the survey’s 2.2-point margin of error. The same pattern appears in the runoff simulation: Lula had 48.5%, compared with Bolsonaro’s 48%. The poll’s assessment is that there is “no statistically significant advantage” for either candidate under that scenario.¹

The gap remains similarly tight when voters are asked to name a candidate without being shown a list. Lula was mentioned by 31.5% and Bolsonaro by 30.5%, while the share of undecided voters fell from 26% in the previous round to 17.5%.

The survey nevertheless places Lula ahead of the other opponents tested in head-to-head matchups. He led Augusto Cury by 48% to 44%, Ronaldo Caiado by 48.5% to 44.6%, Renan Santos by 48% to 41.3%, and Romeu Zema by 48.5% to 44%.²

Views of Lula’s government were also divided. Forty-nine percent said they approved of his performance and the same share said they disapproved. In the more detailed assessment, 35.3% rated the administration good or excellent, while 41% rated it poor or very poor.

Meio/Ideia conducted 2,000 telephone interviews nationwide with voters aged 16 and older from September 25 to 28. The survey, registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-08706/2026-BRASIL, reports a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 points.¹