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Sep 28, 2026
BTG/Nexus poll gives Lula a lead, but Flávio Bolsonaro keeps runoff tight
Coverage of the BTG/Nexus poll agrees that Lula holds an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro, while drawing different conclusions from the same race: one focuses on the prospect of a closely contested runoff, and the other on Lula’s momentum toward a first-round victory.
The two accounts of the BTG/Nexus presidential survey agree on the central result: Lula is ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 contest. Their contrast lies in what each treats as the more meaningful signal — Lula’s apparent growth in the first round or the narrow gap in a possible head-to-head runoff.
The Brazil Right account reports that, in a prompted first-round scenario using valid votes, Lula has 44% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 39%, a five-point advantage. It notes that valid-vote calculations exclude blank, invalid and undecided responses, matching the method used in official election tallies. In a runoff simulation using total votes, however, Lula leads by only 46% to 44%, which the report describes as a technical tie within the poll’s margin of error.1
That account also places the result in a wider field of runoff tests: Lula is shown technically tied with Ronaldo Caiado, while leading Romeu Zema, Renan Santos and Augusto Cury. It says Nexus interviewed 2,000 people nationwide from September 25 to 27, 2026, with a two-point margin of error and 95% confidence level.1
The Brazil Left account emphasizes a different measure: the spontaneous first-round response, in which voters were not presented with names. It puts Lula at 41% of total votes, up one point from the preceding survey, against 35% for Flávio Bolsonaro. After excluding blank, invalid and undecided responses, it calculates Lula at 47.7% of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 40.7%, framing the result as bringing Lula closer to the threshold needed to win outright in the first round.2
It also reports Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 37% in the prompted scenario using total votes, saying Lula gained two points while Bolsonaro was unchanged. Unlike the other account, it says the material available to it did not specify the sample size, margin of error, confidence level, commissioning client or electoral registration number.2
Taken together, the reports portray a race in which Lula leads across the highlighted first-round measures, but where a runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro could be substantially closer.