Nexus/BTG Releases Presidential Poll; Check the Numbers
Nexus/BTG Pactual poll shows the state of the presidential race in the 2026 elections. Read more at Gazeta do Povo.
TL;DR
- Lula leads in a stimulated first-round poll with 44% of valid votes, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 39%.
- In a simulated second-round matchup, Lula has 46% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 44%, a technical tie within the margin of error.
- Lula also shows technical ties with Ronaldo Caiado and leads against Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Escritor Augusto Cury in other second-round simulations.
- The poll was conducted by Nexus, commissioned by Banco BTG Pactual, with 2,000 respondents from September 25-27, 2026.
- The margin of error is 2 percentage points with a 95% confidence level.