Real Time Big Data’s São Paulo survey draws a contrast between races with apparent front-runners and a Senate contest in which the leading names remain closely grouped. The poll interviewed 2,000 voters between September 16 and 19 and reported a margin of error of two percentage points.¹

For president, the poll places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% among São Paulo voters, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 35%. In a head-to-head scenario, Bolsonaro receives 51% to Lula’s 45%, a six-point gap that the report describes as outside the survey’s margin of error.¹ The result suggests a competitive state contest, but one in which Bolsonaro holds the numerical advantage in both tested scenarios.

The governor’s race shows a wider separation. Governor Tarcísio de Freitas is measured at 53% to former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s 38% in the first-round test; in a runoff simulation, the figures are 57% and 39%, respectively.¹ Unlike the presidential matchup, the poll therefore indicates a more established lead for the incumbent at the state level.

The race for São Paulo’s two Senate seats is markedly less settled. Guilherme Derrite leads with 20%, followed by André do Prado at 18% and Simone Tebet at 17%; with the two-point margin of error, the three are in a statistical tie. Marina Silva, at 14%, is also tied with do Prado and Tebet, though not with Derrite under that measure.² Ricardo Salles follows at 9%.

Together, the results show different degrees of certainty across the ballot: a modest presidential edge, a broader gubernatorial lead, and a Senate field where small shifts could still reorder the contenders.