Santa Catarina’s Civil Defense and Epagri/Ciram have raised their assessment of El Niño to “very strong,” citing a 2.2°C sea-surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. The agencies expect above-average rainfall and a greater frequency of storms during spring, with October and November identified as months requiring particular attention.¹

The classification reflects a threshold-based reading of current ocean conditions. Civil Defense meteorologist Nicolle Reis said anomalies must reach at least 2°C for the category, and that the latest reading of 2.2°C “already allows the phenomenon to be considered very strong.”¹ A second account similarly notes that final international confirmation still depends on how the anomaly behaves over time under meteorological monitoring criteria.²

Officials draw a distinction, however, between a heightened probability of disruptive weather and a forecast of a particular catastrophe. Frederico de Moraes Rudorff, Civil Defense’s monitoring and alert manager, said greater moisture and atmospheric instability tend to bring more severe events, including “microbursts and tornadoes,” but added that this does not necessarily mean the most intense events will occur.¹

That caution is central to the agencies’ assessment. They say flooding, flash floods, landslides, hail and wind damage become more concerning when rainfall increases, yet the severity of any episode also depends on factors including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, the subtropical jet stream and moisture transport. Rudorff pointed to major flooding in the Itajaí Valley in 2023 and Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, both during a moderate El Niño, to argue that ocean warming alone does not determine outcomes.¹

The practical advice is therefore focused on short-term warnings rather than broad seasonal labels: residents are urged to follow alerts, seek solid shelter during storms, and avoid trees, utility poles and windows. Civil Defense also offers SMS alerts through the number 40199.²