Brazil’s official IPCA consumer-price index rose 0.82% in September, reversing August’s 0.32% deflation and lifting 12-month inflation to 4.58%, above the 4.5% upper limit of the inflation target range. The outcome also surpassed market expectations, which had pointed to a smaller monthly increase.¹

Both perspectives identify housing, transport and food as the principal forces behind the acceleration. Electricity prices rose 7.98%, making power bills the largest single contribution to the monthly index. Airfares increased 9.66%, while fuels rose 1.41%; food prices also returned to growth after three months of declines.²

The Brazil Left account places particular weight on the reversal of the Itaipu bonus, a temporary August discount on household electricity bills. Without that credit in September, a normally priced bill was measured against an unusually low one. It cites economist Roberto Luis Troster’s assessment that this was a “temporary effect, with limited influence on the next month,” with the green electricity tariff expected to bring some relief in October.²

The Brazil Right account accepts the role of electricity and other regulated prices but frames the figures as evidence of broader persistence. All nine groups measured by IBGE recorded increases, and MAG Investimentos chief economist Felipe Rodrigo de Oliveira said the reading suggested that the recent disinflation process “lost strength in the third quarter of 2026.”¹

That distinction matters for monetary policy. Troster, quoted in the right-leaning account, said rigid services inflation and strong labour-market conditions reduced the space for further Selic cuts. It also links investor expectations to the election and possible fiscal policy changes, while cautioning that lower rates will depend on concrete signs that inflation is returning toward target.¹

Food costs add another source of uncertainty. The left-leaning account attributes sharp rises in tomatoes, potatoes and onions to weaker supply and adverse weather, illustrating how temporary shocks can still quickly reach consumers’ budgets.²