Celina Leão of the Progressive Party (PP) leads Leandro Grass of the Workers’ Party (PT) by 55% to 37% in Datafolha’s first survey of the Federal District’s 2026 gubernatorial runoff. The 18-point gap places Leão ahead at the opening of the second-round campaign, though the two accounts of the poll differ in emphasis rather than in their reporting of the figures.

The Brazil Right coverage foregrounds the survey’s limits. It describes voting-intention polls as “a reading of the moment,” based on representative samples, rather than a prediction of the final result.¹ Its report notes that Leão had 55% in Datafolha’s final pre-first-round survey, while Grass had 27%; the eventual first-round result was closer, with Leão receiving 49.93% of valid votes and Grass 34.47%. That comparison underscores its caution that methodology, sample composition and question wording can affect findings.

The Brazil Left account reports the same runoff numbers—55% for Leão, 37% for Grass, 5% blank, null or no candidate, and 3% undecided—while focusing more directly on the apparent firmness of the electorate. It says that 90% of respondents considered their choice definitive, while 9% said they could still change their vote.²

Both reports cite the same Datafolha fieldwork: 910 Federal District voters interviewed from October 6 to 8, with a three-point margin of error and 95% confidence level. The survey was commissioned by Globo and Folha de S.Paulo and registered with Brazil’s electoral court under DF-03365/2026.¹

The shared evidence therefore points to a clear Leão advantage, but not to a settled contest. One account emphasizes the volatility that can separate surveys from ballot-box results; the other highlights a poll in which most voters say their decision is already made.