Brazil’s beef trade with China has entered a more difficult phase after shipments reached the annual 1.1 million-tonne threshold covered by lower duties. New cargoes arriving from October 1 face a 55% surcharge on top of China’s standard 12% import duty, taking the total tariff to 67%.¹

For exporters, the immediate issue is commercial viability. Diogo Oliveira, a foreign-trade operator at Frigorífico Astra in Cruzeiro do Oeste, said: “Shipping goods to China with the 67% tax becomes unviable, because consumers there cannot absorb that tax and we cannot lower the price enough to make the operation viable.” He said the company’s response is to “diversify markets.”²

That approach reflects Brazil’s heavy exposure to Chinese demand: China takes about 55% of the country’s exported beef, according to the reporting. Exporters are redirecting volumes toward the United States, Chile, the European Union, Russia, Mexico and the Middle East while awaiting the next Chinese quota cycle early next year.¹

The two accounts also argue that the tariff is unlikely to translate into substantially cheaper beef for Brazilian consumers. Paraná’s beef industry is less exposed than major cattle-exporting states and is primarily geared toward regional and domestic sales, while the state’s broader protein-export profile is dominated by poultry.²

Ágide Eduardo Meneguette, president of Paraná’s farm federation, said exporters had anticipated the quota deadline and were already reallocating supply. “It is unlikely that there will be a ‘flood’ of this product in the domestic market that would significantly lower prices,” he said.²

That assessment rests on tight cattle availability after earlier heavy slaughter of female animals. With slaughter-ready cattle scarce and prices elevated, the industry expects herd recovery to take roughly a year and a half, keeping retail price pressure intact even as China-bound sales slow.¹