Donald Trump has described Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round performance in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election as an “incredible result” and a “very big victory,” but has not explicitly urged Brazilians to vote for him in the runoff.¹

That restraint appears to be a calculated contrast with a conventional foreign endorsement. According to the account, the White House and Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign agreed to keep Trump out of direct campaigning, concerned that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva could portray overt backing from Washington as interference in Brazilian sovereignty.¹

The calculation is especially sensitive because the Trump administration has recently imposed tariffs and sanctions involving Brazilian officials. A public alliance, the report argues, could allow Lula’s camp to cast Flávio Bolsonaro as aligned with outside interests, moving the campaign away from domestic grievances and toward Brazil’s relationship with the United States.¹

Trump’s restrained approach does not signal political distance from the Bolsonaro family. Rather, it preserves a visible affinity while limiting the risk that the US president becomes a central issue in the contest. Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round with 47.03% of the vote, ahead of Lula’s 45.16%, making the runoff close enough for campaign messaging to matter.¹

The report also points to recent elections in Canada and Australia, where Trump’s interventions or remarks were used by progressive candidates to mobilize voters against perceived external pressure. In that reading, a formal endorsement could prove counterproductive—not because Trump’s praise is unwelcome to Bolsonaro supporters, but because it may offer Lula’s campaign a more potent line of attack.¹