Renan Filho of the MDB is ahead of João Henrique Caldas, known as JHC, of the PSDB in the latest Alagoas gubernatorial poll — but the survey’s margin of error means the contest remains statistically tied rather than settled.

Real Time Big Data put Renan Filho at 49% and JHC at 46% in the first-round scenario. With a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, the three-point difference is not enough to establish a definitive leader. The survey described the race as a “technical tie,” despite Renan Filho’s numerical edge.¹

That reading differs from a simple interpretation of the topline numbers: Renan Filho is close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, while JHC remains within reach. The same 49%–46% result appeared in the poll’s simulated second round, reinforcing the view that a head-to-head contest would also be highly competitive.²

The newer figures show both leading candidates gaining compared with Real Time’s September 25 survey, when Renan Filho had 47% and JHC had 44%. Their relative positions therefore remained unchanged: both improved, but neither broke clear of the other within the survey’s sampling limits.²

Other candidates did not register support in the gubernatorial scenario. Blank or null responses accounted for 3%, while 2% said they did not know or did not answer.¹

The institute interviewed 1,600 voters in Alagoas from September 29 to October 1. The poll, registered as AL-01185/2026, has a 95% confidence level and a two-point margin of error.²

In the Senate contest covered by the same survey, Marina JHC led with 27%, followed by Renan Calheiros on 23% and Arthur Lira on 22%, a separate race with its own closely grouped front-runners.²