Real Time Big Data’s national survey places President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 43% of first-round voting intentions, compared with 39% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. With a two-point margin of error, the institute characterizes the gap as a technical tie, even as both leading candidates gained two points from its previous poll.¹

The poll presents a similarly tight contrast in a potential runoff. In the direct Lula-Bolsonaro matchup, Bolsonaro receives 46% to Lula’s 45%—a one-point difference that also falls within the stated margin of error. Other head-to-head scenarios give Lula narrower leads over Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, while showing an especially close contest against Augusto Cury.¹

A separate presentation of the same survey, using valid votes rather than all voting intentions, puts Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 41% in the first round. In its direct runoff estimate, however, Bolsonaro leads 51% to 49%.² The differing percentages reflect the measure used: valid-vote calculations exclude blank, null and undecided responses, whereas the broader figures retain them.

Religious affiliation is the clearest dividing line in the results. Among Catholic respondents, Lula leads Bolsonaro by 49% to 33%, a 16-point advantage. Among evangelical voters, the pattern reverses: Bolsonaro leads 52% to 31%, a 21-point margin.³

All three accounts describe the same Real Time Big Data fieldwork: 2,000 voters interviewed from September 26 to 30, with a 95% confidence level and a two-point margin of error. The survey is registered with Brazil’s electoral court under BR-09503/2026.¹