Sergio Moro leads Paraná’s race for governor with 46.2% of total voting intentions, a result that becomes 50.1% when blank, null and undecided responses are removed. That calculation would put the senator just over the threshold needed to win without a runoff.¹

The survey’s central contrast is between Moro’s commanding present position and the momentum of his closest challengers. Requião Filho is second in the prompted poll on 23.6%, followed by Sandro Alex on 21.5%. On valid votes, their support is 25.6% and 23.3%, respectively, leaving neither close to Moro but keeping the margin relevant in a contest where his first-round edge is narrow.

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,280 voters in 60 municipalities from September 25 to 27, using in-person household interviews. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court as PR-02701/2026.²

Moro’s standing has been broadly stable in the institute’s recent series: after registering 46.1% in August, he fell to 45% and then 44.7% before returning to 46.2%. Sandro Alex, by contrast, rose from 16.5% in August to 21.5%, a cumulative five-point increase. Requião Filho varied more modestly, from 23.4% to 23.6% over the same period.²

Other measures also favor Moro. In the unprompted question, he had 33.4%, against 14.2% for Requião Filho and 13% for Sandro Alex, although 34.3% did not name a candidate. And 52.7% of respondents identified Moro as the likely winner, compared with 17.7% for Sandro Alex and 15.1% for Requião Filho.²

Requião Filho nevertheless faces the highest rejection rate, at 39%, while Moro’s is 27.3% and Sandro Alex’s 12.9%. The figures reinforce Moro’s advantage while underlining that a result at the valid-vote cutoff remains sensitive to movement among undecided voters and the poll’s margin of error.²