Governor Jorginho Mello of the Liberal Party (PL) would win re-election in the first round if Santa Catarina voted under the scenario measured by Paraná Pesquisas, according to a survey published Wednesday.

Mello received 58.8% of stated voting intentions, far ahead of João Rodrigues of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), who had 16.5%. Gelson Merísio of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) followed with 11.3%, while the remaining listed candidates each registered close to or below 1%. The figures put Mello above the threshold needed to avoid a runoff, although they represent a snapshot rather than an election result.¹

The Senate contest offers a sharper contrast. Federal deputy Carol de Toni, also of the PL, led the field with 42.3%, giving her a clearer position than the candidates competing for the second of Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats. Former councilman Carlos Bolsonaro, another PL figure, was on 36%, while incumbent Senator Esperidião Amin of Progressistas recorded 34.2% — a gap within the survey’s margin of error.

The poll therefore depicts two different races: a governor contest dominated by the incumbent and a Senate election in which de Toni leads but Bolsonaro and Amin remain closely matched. Décio Lima of the Workers’ Party (PT) was fourth in the Senate survey with 15.6%, followed by Lunelli of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) at 7.2% and Afrânio Boppré of the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) at 6.6%.

Paraná Pesquisas interviewed 1,384 voters in 52 municipalities between September 20 and 22, 2026. It reported a 2.7-percentage-point margin of error and a 95% confidence level; the poll was registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under SC-00523/2026.¹