João Henrique Caldas, known as JHC, leads the Alagoas governor’s race in a Paraná Pesquisas survey, but the numbers point to a competitive contest rather than a decisive breakaway. In the first-round simulation, the former Maceió mayor received 48.6% to 41.6% for Senator Renan Filho; the poll’s summary describes the two as the only candidates with competitive levels of support.¹

The contrast is clearest in the runoff test. JHC registers 49.6%, against 43.2% for Renan Filho, preserving a 6.4-point advantage. Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo each received 0.6% in the first-round scenario, while 4.8% chose blank or null and 3.6% said they did not know or declined to answer.¹

The same survey depicts a more compressed and consequential contest for Alagoas’ two Senate seats. Arthur Lira leads numerically with 41.2%, followed by Marina JHC on 37.8% and Renan Calheiros on 34.6%. With a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points, Lira and Marina JHC are technically tied for first, while Renan Calheiros is technically tied with Marina JHC but not with Lira.²

That distinction means the governor’s race has a clear poll leader, whereas the Senate contest remains vulnerable to modest shifts in voter preference. Davi Davino Filho follows at 25.7%, ahead of Dr. Wanderley at 12.3%; the remaining candidates post low single-digit support.²

Paraná Pesquisas surveyed 1,400 voters in person across 56 municipalities from September 18 to 20. The poll, registered with Brazil’s electoral court under AL-05775/2026, reports a 95% confidence level and a 2.7-point margin of error.³