Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have jointly pressed the UK government to prepare for constitutional change, presenting their campaign as a democratic response to shifting political sentiment rather than an immediate break-up of the state.

After meeting in Cardiff, Scotland’s John Swinney, Wales’s Rhun ap Iorwerth and Northern Ireland’s Michelle O’Neill said their nations had distinct histories and political identities and should be able to determine their futures “by democratic means and in accordance with the will of their people.” They argued that Brexit had damaged their economies and narrowed opportunities, while closer ties with the European Union could bring trade, investment and cultural benefits. Their memorandum urged Westminster to “prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change” in each jurisdiction.¹

The leaders share a broad demand for self-determination, but their objectives and timetables are not identical. Swinney has made the clearest call for another Scottish independence referendum, following the 2014 vote in which Scotland chose to remain in the UK. O’Neill supports a referendum on Irish reunification, a mechanism envisaged under the Good Friday Agreement if evidence suggests public opinion has shifted. In Wales, ap Iorwerth has taken a more cautious line, saying the timing should be decided by Welsh voters; his party is focused first on securing greater devolved powers and preparing longer-term plans.

Burnham’s government rejects the argument that a referendum is currently warranted. The prime minister has said there is no consensus for a new Scottish vote and no clear basis to conclude that a majority in Northern Ireland now favours leaving the UK. A government spokesperson said ministers remained committed to the union and would focus on easing pressure on household finances and improving economic security “instead of engaging in constitutional debates or new referendums.”²

The dispute therefore turns less on whether constitutional questions can ever be put to voters than on whether the political conditions for doing so have been met. The devolved leaders say those conditions are emerging; London says they have not yet arrived.