A new Nexus survey, conducted jointly with Banco BTG Pactual, shows that Lula leads in first-round scenarios for the 2026 presidential election, while Flávio Bolsonaro is in second place. At the same time, the gap between them narrows considerably in a hypothetical runoff.

A publication presenting a left-wing perspective emphasizes Lula’s momentum. In the scenario without Pablo Marçal, his support rose over one week from 39% to 42%—three points, meaning above the stated margin of error. Flávio Bolsonaro’s figure rose from 35% to 37%, but the authors attribute this change to fluctuations within the margin of error. In the same scenario, the tally stands at 42% versus 37%; with Marçal included—40% versus 36%. The authors note that the four-point advantage is “on the edge of a technical tie,” given the two-point margin of error.¹

A source with a right-wing perspective gives the same main figures but brings the runoff to the forefront: Lula receives 47%, while Flávio Bolsonaro gets 46%. The one-point difference means a “technical tie” within the margin of error, although Lula formally remains ahead.²

In this interpretation, what matters more is not one candidate’s week-to-week growth, but the limits imposed by the polling methodology. The publication recalls that such surveys reflect the situation at a specific moment, while the interviewing method, sample composition, and question wording can affect the result. Consequently, the data indicate the competitiveness of the future race rather than allowing its outcome to be predicted.

Both sides also point to the survey’s parameters: the poll was registered with the electoral justice system under number BR-04076/2026 and was conducted from September 11 to 13. However, the number of interviews differs between the publications: one cites 2,003 respondents, the other 2,000. This discrepancy does not alter their shared conclusion: Lula’s first-round lead has not yet eliminated uncertainty in the most likely head-to-head contest.