Lula has a 55% chance of winning the election, says Eurasia Group
Consultancy sees a balanced dispute with Flávio Bolsonaro, but considers incumbency and campaign dynamics as factors that still favor the president
TL;DR
- Eurasia Group estimates a 55% chance of Lula's victory in the 2026 presidential election, with models showing a 50%-50% split.
- The incumbency advantage and potential campaign fragilities for Flávio Bolsonaro are cited as reasons for Lula's slight edge.
- Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show Lula leading in the first round but a narrow margin in a potential second round.
- The Federal Supreme Court (STF) crisis is identified as a factor that negatively impacted Lula's electoral position, but its effect has reportedly diminished.
- The effectiveness of government announcements in shifting media focus away from the STF crisis is considered significant.
- Despite the slight advantage for Lula, analytical models alone do not show a clear favorite, with different indicators favoring either candidate.
- High rejection rates for both Lula (55%) and Bolsonaro (56%) are noted, making a first-round victory unlikely.
- Lower enthusiasm and disillusionment among political bases compared to previous elections are characteristic of this race.
- Uncertainty remains regarding polling accuracy, particularly in calibrating voter turnout and potential 'non-response bias'.