Only One Poll Showed Flávio Numerically Ahead of Lula
AtlasIntel, CNT/MDA, Datafolha, Gerp, PoderData, and Quaest released polls on the eve of the first round. Read on Gazeta do Povo.
TL;DR
- Pre-election polls for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election showed mixed results, with most placing Lula da Silva (PT) ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
- Only the Gerp poll accurately predicted Flávio Bolsonaro's numerical lead before the first round.
- Flávio Bolsonaro (47.03%) advanced to the second round ahead of Lula da Silva (45.15%), based on 99.99% of votes counted.
- The Datafolha poll showed the largest discrepancy for Flávio Bolsonaro's result compared to the actual vote.
- Several polling institutes (Gerp, PoderData, CNT/MDA, Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel) released their findings prior to the election, with details on methodology and TSE registration provided.