Lula and STF nominations: the challenges with a conservative Senate
Lula will need to negotiate four seats on the STF with a conservative Senate majority by 2030. Understand the political challenges and the names considered for the Court.
TL;DR
- Lula needs to appoint four justices to the Supreme Court by the end of 2030.
- A conservative majority in the Senate, led by the PL party from 2027, poses a significant challenge.
- The government must secure 41 favorable votes for each nomination in a secret ballot.
- Previous rejections highlight the need for less ideologically charged nominees.
- Negotiations with senators, including concessions, will be necessary for approval.
- The four upcoming vacancies are due to retirements: Luís Roberto Barroso (2025), Luiz Fux (2028), Cármen Lúcia (2029), and Gilmar Mendes (2030).
- The Senate's control over the nomination process, including committee hearings and floor votes, is critical.
- The relationship with the Senate President is key to a successful nomination.
- Potential candidates aim to balance legal competence with political acceptability, with names like Simone Tebet and Edilene Lobo being considered, alongside calls for female and racial representation.